Geospatial modelling of the prevalence and changing distribution of frailty in Australia-2011 to 2027

Background and objectives: Detailed information about the current and future geographic distribution of Australia's frail population provides critical evidence to inform policy, resource allocation and planning initiatives that aim to treat and reverse frailty. Frailty is associated with poor health outcomes, including disability and death. It is also characterised by increased health care usage and costs. Understanding the distribution and growth of frailty is important for planning and budgeting service provision and health interventions aimed to support the needs of Australia's growing ageing population. The objective of this research is to provide baseline mapping and area level population estimates of Australia's current and future frail and pre-frail populations. Research design and methods: Geospatial modelling was applied to national frailty prevalence rates to provide estimates of the size, distribution and potential growth of Australia's frail and pre-frail population. Results: It is estimated that in 2016 approximately 415,769 people living in Australia aged 65 years or more are frail and almost 1.7 million people are pre-frail. In future years, as the population ages, these figures will increase rapidly, reaching 609,306 frail and 2,248,977 pre-frail by 2027, if prevalence continues at current levels. The geographic distribution of this projected growth is not uniform and while the largest frail populations will continue to be located in the major cities, the fastest growth will be in the outer metropolitan, regional and remote areas. Discussion and implications: The projected growth of frail populations in outer metropolitan, regional and remote areas may be reduced by targeting health interventions in these areas and improving access to support services. Frailty is a dynamic condition that is amenable to intervention. Reducing frailty will lead to benefits in wellbeing for older Australians in addition to reductions in health care costs.