期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 127, 期 -, 页码 11-18出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.041
关键词
Natural gas; Import risks; Diversification theory; Optimization; China
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71722003, 71690244, 71273277]
- National Key R&D Program of China [2016YFC0208901]
- Philosophy and Social Sciences Major Research Project of the Ministry of Education in China [11JZD048]
- China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2017M620809]
China's growing dependence on foreign natural gas has garnered increased attention to import risks and exposure. The purpose of this study is to serve as a vital guide in formulating an energy policy framework that aims at assessing and mitigating the impacts of natural gas import risks (NGIR). First, the paper constructs a NGIR evaluation framework with full consideration of resource risk, political risk, transport risk, price volatility risk, purchasing power risk and dependence risk. The relative weight of various risk factors is also identified for importing gas from different sources. Building on this, we use a linear programming model to optimize China's gas import sources based on the minimization of import risks. The results show that China's NGIR exhibited increasing trends in 2010-2014, with variation in the largest risk factors by national gas supplier. For Turkmenistan and Indonesia, the greatest risk is dependence; for Qatar, price volatility risk; for Yemen, Australia and Uzbekistan, resource risk; and for Malaysia, purchasing power risk. Along with other policy recommendations, our optimization results indicate that increasing the proportion of Chinese gas imports from potential suppliers, such as Russia and the United States, is an effective approach to reduce NGIR.
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