A Multigene Assay Determines Risk of Recurrence in Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Approximately 40% of patients with stage I-III triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) recur after standard treatment, whereas the remaining 60% experience long-term disease-free survival (DFS). There are currently no clinical tests to assess the risk of recurrence in TNBC patients. We previously determined that TNBC patients with MHC class II (MHCII) pathway expression in their tumors experienced significantly longer DFS. To translate this discovery into a clinical test, we developed an MHCII Immune Activation assay, which measures expression of 36 genes using NanoString technology. Preanalytical testing confirmed that the assay is accurate and reproducible in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor specimens. The assay measurements were concordant with RNA-seq, MHCII protein expression, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte counts. In a training set of 44 primary TNBC tumors, the MHCII Immune Activation Score was significantly associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.17; P = 0.015). In an independent validation cohort of 56 primary FFPE TNBC tumors, the Immune Activation Score was significantly associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.19; P = 0.011) independent of clinical stage. An Immune Activation Score threshold for identifying patients with very low risk of relapse in the training set provided 100% specificity in the validation cohort. The assay format enables adoption as a standardized clinical prognostic test for identifying TNBC patients with a low risk of recurrence. Correlative data support future studies to determine if the assay can identify patients in whom chemotherapy can be safely deescalated and patients likely to respond to immunotherapy. Significance: The MHCII Immune Activation assay identifies TNBC patients with a low risk of recurrence, addressing a critical need for prognostic biomarker tests that enable precision medicine for TNBC patients.