Exploring the Driving Forces and Reduction Potential of Industrial Energy-Related CO2 Emissions during 2001-2030: A Case Study for Henan Province, China

In China, the industrial sector is the main contributor to economic development and CO2 emissions, especially for the developing regional provinces. This study employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to decompose industrial energy-related CO2 emission into eight factors during 2001-2015 for Henan Province. Furthermore, the future CO2 emissions under different scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU), Efficiency Improvement (EI), Structural Optimization (SO), R&D Input (RD), and Comprehensive Policy (CP) scenarios) over 2016-2030 are projected. The results indicate that among these factors, the economic output, R&D intensity, investment intensity, and energy structure are the drivers for increasing CO2 emissions over the entire period, with the contribution of 293, 83, 80, and 1% of the total CO2 emissions changes, respectively. Conversely, the energy intensity, R&D efficiency, and industrial internal structure can decrease CO(2 )emissions with contributions of -86, -163, and -108% to the changes, respectively. Under the five scenarios, CO2 emissions in 2030 will reach 1222, 1079, 793, 987, and 638 Mt with an annual growth rate of 4.7%, 3.8%, 1.8%, 3.3%, and 0.4%, respectively. In particular, the CO2 emission peak for SO and CP scenarios is observed before 2030. Finally, some policy implications are suggested to further mitigate industrial emissions.