期刊
SUSTAINABILITY
卷 11, 期 5, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/su11051256
关键词
construction cost and schedule performance; fuzzy inference system; analytic hierarchy process; fuzzy set quantitative comparative analysis; offshore mega-project; engineering; procurement and construction (EPC) project; DECRIS; risk mitigation plan
资金
- Ministry of Trade Industry and Energy (MOTIE/KEIT) Korea through the Technology Innovation Program [20002806, 10077606]
- Korea Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology (KEIT) [10077606, 20002806] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
The main subject of this research is to develop a forecast and mitigation model of schedule and cost performance during a detailed engineering stage of offshore engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects. The weight factors of major elements in detailed engineering completion rating index system (DECRIS) were measured using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At five key engineering milestones, from an EPC contract being awarded to the start of construction, detailed engineering maturities were assessed in fourteen historical offshore EPC projects using the DECRIS model. DECRIS cutoff scores for successful project execution were defined at the key engineering milestones. A schedule and cost performance was forecasted and validated through comparison of DECRIS and other models using statistical confidence of a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a regression analysis. As a mitigation method for engineering risks to EPC contractors, engineering resource enhancement is recommended for trade-off optimization of cost overrun using a Monte Carlo simulation. The main contribution of this research is that EPC contractors could continuously forecast construction costs and schedule performance utilizing the DECRIS model, and could review the adequacy of engineering resources, assessing the trade-off between said resources and cost/schedule risk mitigation.
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