Prognosis for residual islet β-cell secretion function in young patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes

Background This study investigated possible predictors of residual islet beta-cell function (RBF) in young patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes (T1D). Methods After analyzing RBF in 443 patients with T1D according to age at diagnosis and disease duration, 110 were followed-up over 18-60 months. A nomogram was developed by logistic regression to explore factors associated with long-term RBF. Results Of the 443 T1D patients (mean [+/- SD] age 20.28 +/- 5.50 years; mean [+/- SD] diabetes duration 28.5 +/- 14.6 months), RBF was preserved in 64.3%. Independent predictors for poor RBF outcome among the 110 patients in the follow-up cohort were age at onset (odds ratio [OR] 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.92; P < 0.001), high-risk human leukocyte antigen (HLA) status (OR 4.73; CI 1.28-17.52; P = 0.020), female sex (OR 3.39; CI 1.03-11.22; P = 0.045), and a history of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA; OR 8.71; CI 2.31-32.83; P < 0.001). Baseline glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) antibody, family history of diabetes, body mass index, insulin dosage, and C-peptide and HbA1c levels were not associated with poor RBF outcome. Intensive glycemic control after T1D diagnosis may improve RBF within a mean (+/- SD) follow-up of 35.1 +/- 13.8 months. The calibration plot for the probability of 2-, 3-, and 4-year RBF showed optimal agreement between nomogram-predicted and actual observed probabilities. Conclusions Younger age of onset, female sex, higher HLA risk status, and a history of DKA were the main factors predicting long-term poor preserved beta-cell function. Glycemic control could improve RBF during the course of diabetes. The nomogram provides an individualized risk estimate of RBF in patients with newly diagnosed T1D within Chinese Han populations.