期刊
SCIENCE
卷 363, 期 6430, 页码 979-+出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.aau1758
关键词
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资金
- NSF [OCE-1426891, DEB-1616821]
- Alfred P. Sloan fellowship
- NMFS-Sea Grant Population Dynamics fellowship
- New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium (NJSGC) [NJSG-18-939]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Sea Grant, U.S. Department of Commerce, under NOAA [NA13OAR4170114]
- NJSGC
Climate change is altering habitats for marine fishes and invertebrates, but the net effect of these changes on potential food production is unknown. We used temperature-dependent population models to measure the influence of warming on the productivity of 235 populations of 124 species in 38 ecoregions. Some populations responded significantly positively (n = 9 populations) and others responded significantly negatively (n = 19 populations) to warming, with the direction and magnitude of the response explained by ecoregion, taxonomy, life history, and exploitation history. Hindcasts indicate that the maximum sustainable yield of the evaluated populations decreased by 4.1% from 1930 to 2010, with five ecoregions experiencing losses of 15 to 35%. Outcomes of fisheries management-including long-term food provisioning-will be improved by accounting for changing productivity in a warmer ocean.
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