期刊
RISK ANALYSIS
卷 39, 期 7, 页码 1520-1532出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13284
关键词
Argument from inductive risk; hypothesis testing; risk assessment; uncertainty analysis; value-neutral
类别
资金
- NERC [NE/N012240/1]
- NERC [NE/N012240/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Many philosophers and statisticians argue that risk assessors are morally obligated to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of methodological error, and to base their decisions of whether to adopt a given parameter value, model, or hypothesis on those considerations. This argument is couched within the rubric of null hypothesis testing, which I suggest is a poor descriptive and normative model for risk assessment. Risk regulation is not primarily concerned with evaluating the probability of data conditional upon the null hypothesis, but rather with measuring risks, estimating the consequences of available courses of action and inaction, formally characterizing uncertainty, and deciding what to do based upon explicit values and decision criteria. In turn, I defend an ideal of value-neutrality, whereby the core inferential tasks of risk assessment-such as weighing evidence, estimating parameters, and model selection-should be guided by the aim of correspondence to reality. This is not to say that value judgments be damned, but rather that they should be accounted for within a structured approach to decision analysis, rather than embedded within risk assessment in an informal manner.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据