期刊
OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY
卷 133, 期 2, 页码 245-254出版社
LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
DOI: 10.1097/AOG.0000000000003086
关键词
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资金
- National Cancer Institute [CA 27469]
- Gynecologic Oncology Group Statistical and Data Center [CA 37517]
- NRG Oncology Grant [1 U10 CA180822, U10 CA180868]
OBJECTIVE: To analyze clinical prognostic factors for survival after recurrence of high-grade, advanced-stage ovarian-peritoneal-tubal carcinoma and to develop a nomogram to predict individual survival after recurrence. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed patients treated in multicenter Gynecologic Oncology Group protocols for stage III and IV ovarian-peritoneal-tubal carcinoma who underwent primary debulking surgery, received chemotherapy with paclitaxel and a platinum compound, and subsequently developed recurrence. Prognostic factors affecting survival were identified and used to develop a nomogram, which was both internally and externally validated. RESULTS: There were 4,739 patients included in this analysis, of whom, 84% had stage III and 16% had stage IV ovarian carcinoma. At a median follow-up of 88.8 months (95% CI 86.2-92.0 months), the vast majority of patients (89.4%) had died. The median survival after recurrence was 21.4 months (95% CI 20.5-21.9 months). Time to recurrence after initial chemotherapy, clear cell or mucinous histology, performance status, stage IV disease, and age were significant variables used to develop a nomogram for survival after recurrence, which had a concordance index of 0.67. The time to recurrence alone accounted for 85% of the prognostic information. Similar results were found for patients who underwent second look laparotomy and had a complete pathologic response or received intraperitoneal chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: For individuals with advanced-stage ovarian carcinoma who recur after standard first-line therapy, estimated survivals after recurrence are closely related to the time to recurrence after chemotherapy and prognostic variables can be used to predict subsequent survival.
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