Probabilistic snow cover and ensemble streamflow estimations in the Upper Euphrates Basin

Predicting snow cover dynamics and relevant streamflow due to snowmelt is a challenging issue in mountainous basins. Spatio-temporal variations of snow extent can be analyzed using probabilistic snow cover maps derived from satellite images within a relatively long period. In this study, Probabilistic Snow Depletion Curves (P-SDCs) and Probabilistic Snow Lines (P-SLs) are acquired from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-filtered daily snow cover images. Analyses of P-SDCs show a strong correlation with average daily runoff (R-2 = 0.90) and temperature (R-2 = 0.96). On the other hand, the challenge lies in developing noteworthy methods to use P-SDCs in streamflow estimations. Therefore, the main objective is to explore the feasibility of producing probabilistic runoff forecasts with P-SDC forcing in a snow dominated basin. Upper Euphrates Basin in Turkey has large snow extent and high snowmelt contribution during spring and summer periods. The melting characteristics are defined by P-SDCs using MODIS imagery for 2001-2012. The value of snow probability maps on ensemble runoff predictions is shown with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) during 2013-2015 where the estimated runoff values indicate good consistency (NSE: 0.47-0.93) with forecasts based on the derived P-SDCs. Therefore, the probabilistic approach distinguishes the snow cover characteristics for a region and promotes a useful methodology on the application of probabilistic runoff predictions especially for snow dominated areas.