期刊
ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
卷 76, 期 6, 页码 1524-1542出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsz029
关键词
climate; management strategy evaluation; recruitment; sablefish
US West Coast sablefish are economically valuable, with landings of 11.8 million pounds valued at over $31 million during 2016, making assessing and understanding the impact of climate change on the California Current (CC) stock a priority for (1) forecasting future stock productivity, and (2) testing the robustness of management strategies to climate impacts. Sablefish recruitment is related to large-scale climate forcing indexed by regionally correlated sea level (SL) and zooplankton communities that pelagic young-of-the-year sablefish feed upon. This study forecasts trends in future sablefish productivity using SL from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and explores the robustness of harvest control rules (HCRs) to climate driven changes in recruitment using management strategy evaluation (MSE). Future sablefish recruitment is likely to be similar to historical recruitment but may be less variable. Most GCMs suggest that decadal SL trends result in recruitments persisting at lower levels through about 2040 followed by higher levels that are more favorable for sablefish recruitment through 2060. Although this MSE suggests that spawning biomass and catches will decline, and then stabilize, into the future under both HCRs, the sablefish stock does not fall below the stock size that leads to fishery closures.
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