The biorefinery transition in the European pulp and paper industry - A three-phase Delphi study including a SWOT-AHP analysis

Because it is a mature industry, the European pulp and paper industry (PPI) possesses strengths due to its infrastructure, technological know-how, and the availability of biomass. However, the declining trend in the wood-based products sales, coupled with an increasing amount of global attention focused on a bio-based and circular economy, sends a clear signal to the industry, indicating that it needs to transform its business model to increase its profitability while contributing to climate change mitigation. Integrating the biorefinery concept as a value creation business model seems to be the pathway that will reach these objectives. This study was carried out to empirically assess and prioritize factors that affect the diffusion and implementation of the biorefinery concept in the European PPI. For this purpose, a three-phase Delphi study, including a SWOT-Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was conducted. During the course of this study, the opinions of experts from industry and academia were gathered using both qualitative and quantitative methods. The findings reveal that the political dimension has a significant influence on the ability of individuals to tackle the economic barriers while reinforcing the environmental and social benefits in the macro-environment. At the industry level, the availability of biomass appears to be a strength of the PPI, while the knowledge gap regarding technology and the market represents a crucial barrier for the biorefinery development. The human resources issue is indicated as an important premise behind the identified barriers on a strategic level. Finally, five potential strategies for the biorefinery development in the PPI were derived by logically combining the results of the SWOT-AHP decision-making.