Longitudinal evolution of CT and MRI LI-RADS v2014 category 1, 2, 3, and 4 observations

Objectives This study assesses the risk of progression of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) categories, and the effects of inter-exam changes in modality or radiologist on LI-RADS categorization. Methods Clinical LI-RADS v2014 CT and MRI exams at our institution between January 2014 and September 2017 were retrospectively identified. Untreated LR-1, LR-2, LR-3, and LR-4 observations with at least one follow-up exam were included. Three hundred and seventy-two observations in 214 patients (149 male, 65 female, mean age 61 +/- 10 years) were included during the study period (715 exams total). Cumulative incidence curves for progression to malignant LI-RADS categories (LR-5 or LR-M) and to LR-4 or higher were generated for each index category and compared using log-rank tests with a resampling extension. Relationships between inter-exam changes in LI-RADS category and modality or radiologist, adjusted for inter-exam time intervals, were modeled using mixed effect logistic regressions. Results Median inter-exam follow-up interval and total follow-up duration were 123 and 227 days, respectively. Index LR-1, LR-2, LR-3, and LR-4 differed significantly in their cumulative incidences of progression to malignant categories (p < 0.0001), which were 0%, 2%, 7%, and 32% at 6 months, respectively. Index LR-1, LR-2, and LR-3 differed significantly in cumulative incidences of progression to LR-4 or higher (p = 0.003). MRI-MRI exam pairs had more stable LI-RADS categorization compared to CT-CT (OR = 0.460, p = 0.0018). Conclusions LI-RADS observations demonstrate increasing risk of progression to malignancy with increasing category ranging from 0% for LR-1 to 32% for LR-4 at 6 months. Inter-exam modality changes are associated with LI-RADS category changes.