期刊
DIABETES CARE
卷 42, 期 4, 页码 539-544出版社
AMER DIABETES ASSOC
DOI: 10.2337/dc18-1485
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资金
- Medicinska Understodsforeningen Liv och Halsa
- Finska Lakaresallskapet - Academy of Finland [277939]
OBJECTIVE To estimate long-term cumulative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This nationwide population-based inception cohort study included 421,429 patients with type 2 diabetes diagnosed in 1990-2011; patients were followed until the end of 2013. Data linkage between several national health care registers in Finland, covering 100% of the population, enabled the inclusion of almost all inhabitants who started taking diabetes medication or were hospitalized for diabetes. Cumulative risk of ESRD and hazard ratios [HR] for ESRD and death were estimated according to age, sex, and time period of diabetes diagnosis. RESULTS Among 421,429 patients with type 2 diabetes, 1,516 developed ESRD and 150,524 died during 3,458,797 patient-years of follow-up. Cumulative risk of ESRD was 0.29% at 10 years and 0.74% at 20 years from diagnosis of diabetes. Risk was higher among men than among women (HR 1.93 [95% CI 1.72-2.16]), decreased with older age at diagnosis (HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.60-0.81] for age 60-69 vs. 40-49 years), and was lower for those diagnosed in 2000-2011 than in 1990-1994 (HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.63-0.81]). Patients diagnosed with diabetes in 2000-2011 had lower risk of death during follow-up than those diagnosed in 1990-1994 (HR 0.64 [95% CI 0.63-0.65]). CONCLUSIONS Cumulative risk of ESRD is minimal among patients with type 2 diabetes compared with their risk of death. Patients diagnosed with diabetes at an older age have a lower risk of ESRD due to higher competing mortality.
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