期刊
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
卷 183, 期 7, 页码 657-663出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwv452
关键词
burden; clinical symptoms; coronavirus; MERS; severity
资金
- RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate
- Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
- US National Institute of General Medical Sciences [5U54GM088491]
- Medical Research Council
- National Institute of Health Research for Health Protection Research Unit programme
- Labex IBEID
- European Union [278433-PREDEMICS]
- NIGMS MIDAS initiative
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- AXA Research Fund
- Medical Research Council [MR/K010174/1B, MR/K010174/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- National Institute for Health Research [NF-SI-0513-10125, NF-SI-0508-10252, HPRU-2012-10080] Funding Source: researchfish
- MRC [MR/K010174/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.
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