Psychiatric, Demographic, and Brain Morphological Predictors of Relapse After Treatment for an Alcohol Use Disorder

Background: Relapse in alcohol use disorders (AUD) is related to a complex interplay among multiple biological, psychiatric, psychological, and psychosocial factors, which may change dynamically during and after treatment. At treatment entry for AUD, morphological abnormalities in anterior frontal regions and the insula have been observed in those who ultimately relapse following treatment. The goal of this study was to determine whether anterior frontal and insula measures of brain thickness, surface area, and volume predict posttreatment drinking status (i.e., relapser or abstainer) over an extended period after outpatient treatment for AUD, while concurrently considering common psychiatric, psychological, and psychosocial factors previously associated with relapse. Methods: Alcohol-dependent individuals (n = 129) were followed for 18 months after treatment to determine posttreatment drinking status (abstainers [n = 47] or relapsers [n = 82]). Brain morphometrics were derived from FreeSurfer. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the regional brain thickness, surface area, and volume (all scaled to intracranial volume), demographic, psychiatric, other substance use (e.g., cigarette smoking), and alcohol consumption variables, obtained at entry into treatment, that best predicted posttreatment drinking status. Survival analyses determined variables that were related to duration of abstinence after treatment. Results: ROC analyses indicated that mood disorders, education, and volumes of the right caudal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), right rostral ACC, and total right frontal gray matter were significant predictors of posttreatment drinking status. Among relapsers, survival analyses showed smokers and individuals with a comorbid medical condition relapsed earlier after treatment. Additionally, a greater frequency of smokers relapsed within 6 months of AUD treatment. Conclusions: Results reinforce that relapse in AUD is a function of multiple biological, psychiatric, psychological, and psychosocial factors. Effective treatment of depressive disorders and cigarette smoking concurrent with AUD-focused interventions may promote better treatment outcomes.