期刊
CANCER MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH
卷 10, 期 -, 页码 5439-5450出版社
DOVE MEDICAL PRESS LTD
DOI: 10.2147/CMAR.S177945
关键词
cancer-specific survival; nomogram; osteosarcoma; overall survival; prognosis; SEER database
类别
资金
- Guangzhou Science and Technology Project of China [201607010021]
- Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China [2014A020212571]
Purpose: A prognostic nomogram was applied to predict survival in osteosarcoma patients. Patients and methods: Data collected from 2,195 osteosarcoma patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1983 and 2014 were analyzed. Independent prognostic factors were identified via univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. These were incorporated into a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates. Internal and external data were used for validation. Concordance indices (C-indices) were used to estimate nomogram accuracy. Results: Patients were randomly assigned into a training cohort (n=1,098) or validation cohort (n=1,097). Age at diagnosis, tumor site, histology, tumor size, tumor stage, use of surgery, and tumor grade were identified as independent prognostic factors via univariate and multivariate Cox analyses (all P<0.05) and then included in the prognostic nomogram. C-indices for OS and CSS prediction in the training cohort were 0.763 (95% CI 0.761-0.764) and 0.764 (95% CI 0.762-0.765), respectively. C-indices for OS and CSS prediction in the external validation cohort were 0.739 (95% CI 0.737-0.740) and 0.740 (95% CI, 0.738-0.741), respectively. Calibration plots revealed excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram prediction. Conclusion: Nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for osteosarcoma patients in the SEER database. They provide accurate and individualized survival prediction.
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