A Numerical Framework for Evaluating Flood Inundation Hazard under Different Dam Operation ScenariosA Case Study in Naugatuck River

Worldwide, many river floodplains contain critical infrastructure that is vulnerable to extreme hydrologic events. These structures are designed based on flood frequency analysis aimed at quantifying the magnitude and recurrence of the extreme events. This research topic focuses on estimating flood vulnerability at ungauged locations based on an integrative framework consisting of a distributed rainfall-runoff model forced with long-term (37 years) reanalysis meteorological data and a hydraulic model driven by high-resolution airborne LiDAR-derived terrain elevation data. The framework is applied to a critical power infrastructure located within Connecticut's Naugatuck River Basin. The hydrologic model reanalysis is used to derive 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return period flood peaks, which are then used to drive Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic simulations to estimate the inundation risk at the infrastructure location under different operation strategies of an upstream reservoir. This study illustrates the framework's potential for creating flood maps at ungauged locations and demonstrates the effects of different water management scenarios on the flood risk of the downstream infrastructure.