期刊
QUATERNARY RESEARCH
卷 91, 期 2, 页码 751-767出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/qua.2018.98
关键词
Late Holocene; Precipitation regime; Precipitation trend; Levant paleoclimate; Dead Sea level; Stochastic modeling
资金
- Israel Science Foundation (ISF) [1007/15]
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) [BR2208/13-1/-2]
- ISF-Dead Sea Core Center of Excellence (ISF grant) [1436/14]
- Israel Ministry of Science and Technology [61792]
- U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) - U.S.-Israel Binational Science Foundation (BSF) grant [BSF 2016953]
A novel quantitative assessment of late Holocene precipitation in the Levant is presented, including mean and variance of annual precipitation and their trends. A stochastic framework was utilized and allowed, possibly for the first time, linking high-quality, reconstructed rises/declines in Dead Sea levels with precipitation trends in its watershed. We determined the change in mean annual precipitation for 12 specific intervals over the past 4500 yr, concluding that: (1) the twentieth century was substantially wetter than most of the late Holocene; (2) a representative reference value of mean annual precipitation is 75% of the present-day parameter; (3) during the late Holocene, mean annual precipitation ranged between -17 and +66% of the reference value (-37 to +25% of present-day conditions); (4) the driest intervals were 1500-1200 BC and AD 755-890, and the wettest intervals were 2500-2460 BC, 130-40 BC, AD 350-490, and AD 1770-1940; (5) lake-level rises and declines probably occurred in response to trends in precipitation means and are less likely to occur when precipitation mean is constant; (6) average trends in mean annual precipitation during intervals of 200 yr did not exceed 15 mm per decade. The precipitation trends probably reflect shifts in eastern Mediterranean cyclone tracks.
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