期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 115, 期 42, 页码 10600-10605出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1802129115
关键词
drought; drought losses; projections; global warming; China
资金
- National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0603701]
- National 1000 Talent Program [Y474171]
- National Natural Science foundation of China [41671211, 41661144027]
We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and intensity-loss rate function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 degrees C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 degrees C warming.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据