The Burden of Frailty Among US Veterans and Its Association With Mortality, 2002-2012

Background: Frailty is a key determinant of clinical outcomes. We sought to describe frailty among U.S. Veterans and its association with mortality. Methods: Nationwide retrospective cohort study of regular Veterans Affairs (VA) users, aged at least 65 years in 2002-2012, followed through 2014, using national VA administrative and Medicare and Medicaid data. A frailty index (FI) for VA (VA-FI) was calculated using the cumulative deficit method. Thirty-one age-related deficits in health from diagnostic and procedure codes were included and were updated biennially. Survival analysis assessed associations between VA-FI and mortality. Results: A VA-FI was calculated for 2,837,152 Veterans over 10 years. In 2002, 35.5% were non-frail (FI = 0-0.10), 32.6% were pre-frail (FI = 0.11-0.20), 18.9% were mildly frail (FI = 0.21-0.30), 8.7% were moderately frail (FI = 0.31-0.40), and 4.3% were severely frail (FI > 0.40). From 2002 to 2012, the prevalence of moderate frailty increased to 12.7% and severe frailty to 14.1%. Frailty was strongly associated with survival and was independent of age, sex, race, and smoking; the VA-FI better predicted mortality than age alone. Although prevalence of frailty rose over time, compared to non-frail Veterans, 2 years' hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for mortality declined from a peak in 2004 of 2.01 (1.97-2.04), 3.49 (3.44-3.55), 5.88 (5.79-5.97), and 10.39 (10.23-10.56) for pre-frail, mildly, moderately, and severely frail, respectively, to 1.51 (1.49-1.53), 2.36 (2.33-2.39), 3.68 (3.63-3.73), 6.62 (6.53-6.71) in 2012. At every frailty level, risk of mortality was lower for women versus men and higher for blacks versus whites. Conclusions: Frailty affects at least 3 of every 10 U.S. Veterans aged 65 years and older, and is strongly associated with mortality. The VA-FI could be used to more accurately estimate life expectancy and individualize care for Veterans.