期刊
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
卷 55, 期 4, 页码 920-937出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12701
关键词
sustainability; planning; uncertainty analysis; risk assessment; decision support systems; water resource economics; climate variability; change
There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom-up, robustness-based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for confronting climate uncertainty is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its climate change stress test with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human-hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.
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