Getting the Right Answers for the Right Reasons: Toward Predictive Molecular Simulations of Water with Many-Body Potential Energy Functions

The central role played by water in fundamental processes relevant to different disciplines, including chemistry, physics, biology, materials science, geology, and climate research, cannot be overemphasized. It is thus not surprising that, since the pioneering work by Stillinger and Rahman, many theoretical and computational studies have attempted to develop a microscopic description of the unique properties of water under different thermodynamic conditions. Consequently, numerous molecular models based on either molecular mechanics or ab initio approaches have been proposed over the years. However, despite continued progress, the correct prediction of the properties of water from small gas-phase clusters to the liquid phase and ice through a single molecular model remains challenging. To large extent, this is due to the difficulties encountered in the accurate modeling of the underlying hydrogen-bond network in which both number and strength of the hydrogen bonds vary continuously as a result of a subtle interplay between energetic, entropic, and nuclear quantum effects. In the past decade, the development of efficient algorithms for correlated electronic structure calculations of small molecular complexes, accompanied by tremendous progress in the analytical representation of multidimensional potential energy surfaces, opened the doors to the design of highly accurate potential energy functions built upon rigorous representations of the many-body expansion (MBE) of the interaction energies. This Account provides a critical overview of the performance of the MB-pol many-body potential energy function through a systematic analysis of energetic, structural, thermodynamic, and dynamical properties as well as of vibrational spectra of water from the gas to the condensed phase. It is shown that MB-pol achieves unprecedented accuracy across all phases of water through a quantitative description of each individual term of the MBE, with a physically correct representation of both short- and long-range many-body contributions. Comparisons with experimental data probing different regions of the water potential energy surface from clusters to bulk demonstrate that MB-pol represents a major step toward the long-sought-after universal model capable of accurately describing the molecular properties of water under different conditions and in different environments. Along this path, future challenges include the extension of the many-body scheme adopted by MB-pol to the description of generic solutes as well as the integration of MB-pol in an efficient theoretical and computational framework to model acidbase reactions in aqueous environments. In this context, given the nontraditional form of the MB-pol energy and force expressions, synergistic efforts by theoretical/computational chemists/physicists and computer scientists will be critical for the development of high-performance software for many-body molecular dynamics simulations.