A nation-wide analysis of tree mortality under climate change: Forest loss and its causes in Israel 1948-2017

Is tree mortality increasing? Are recent mortality events related to climate change? Which tree species are the most affected? Many case studies have been published in the last decade, but the necessary large-scale and long-term knowledge is still missing. Here we combined data from forest surveys and satellite imagery, to create the first spatial tree mortality history at the national scale. Israel is a small country with only 7% forest cover, but its large environmental diversity and mosaic of many, small, forest areas makes it a good 'miniature model' for the task. Tree mortality events have been increasing significantly since 1991 and correlated well with drought. Among mortality events, 24% of the loss was directly related to drought, and 58% to fire, with 69% of fires occurring over a drought background. Conifers were disproportionally more affected than native broadleaved trees. This is the first national-scale study of tree mortality dynamics, and it confirms the suspected increase in this phenomenon in recent decades, and the dominant role of drought. Our study opens a way to a better, multi-source monitoring future for forest management and ensuring forest sustainability under climate change.