期刊
CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY
卷 57, 期 -, 页码 60-67出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2018.09.008
关键词
Markov modeling; State-transition modeling; Discrete event simulation; Time-to-event; Cost-effectiveness; Individual patient data
Background Individual patient data, e.g. from clinical trials, often need to be extrapolated or combined with additional evidence when assessing long-term impact in cost-effectiveness modeling studies. Different modeling methods can be used to represent the complex dynamics of clinical practice; the choice of which may impact cost-effectiveness outcomes. We compare the use of a previously designed cohort discrete-time state-transition model (DT-STM) with a discrete event simulation (DES) model. Methods: The original DT-STM was replicated and a DES model developed using AnyLogic software. Models were populated using individual patient data of a phase III study in metastatic colorectal cancer patients, and compared based on their evidence structure, internal validity, and cost-effectiveness outcomes. The DT-STM used time-dependent transition probabilities, whereas the DES model was populated using parametric distributions. Results: The estimated time-dependent transition probabilities for the DT-STM were irregular and more sensitive to single events due to the required small cycle length and limited number of event observations, whereas parametric distributions resulted in smooth time-to-event curves for the DES model. Although the DT-STM and DES model both yielded similar time-to-event curves, the DES model represented the trial data more accurately in terms of mean health-state durations. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was (sic)172,443 and (sic)168,383 per Quality Adjusted Life Year gained for the DT-STM and DES model, respectively. Conclusion: DES represents time-to-event data from clinical trials more naturally and accurately than DT-STM when few events are observed per time cycle. As a consequence, DES is expected to yield a more accurate ICER.
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