Prioritization in modal shift: determining a region's most suitable freight flows

Purpose Different policy measures have been introduced to enhance a modal shift from road-only to intermodal transport. In Northwestern European countries such as Belgium, policy makers are increasingly trying to approach shippers on an individual basis in order to convince them about the potential benefits of intermodal transport for their company. This paper proposes a tool to identify the most promising cases for modal shift in a predetermined region. Methods The suggested methodology takes the form of a Geographic Information System-based macro-scan. It ranks geographic entities (or companies within) according to their modal shift potential, based on a list of space-and network-dependent criteria, such as transport volumes, transport price, post haulage transport time and product characteristics. Results The methodology was applied to a transboundary case study in Belgium and the Netherlands. The results of the analysis can serve as input for a micro-scan that identifies the suitable companies in the most favorable areas. A sensitivity analysis is performed to check the robustness of the weights given to the considered criteria. Conclusions The proposed methodology allows ranking geographic entities according to their modal shift potential, providing a strong tool to policy makers to focus their modal shift efforts on a limited number of transport flows with a high success rate. The practical usefulness of the results of the analysis is however highly dependent on the quality and the level of detail of the transport flows input data.