Review of models and actors in energy mix optimization - can leader visions and decisions align with optimum model strategies for our future energy systems?

Organizational behavior and stakeholder processes continually influence energy strategy choices and decisions. Although theoretical optimizations can provide guidance for energy mix decisions from a pure physical systems engineering point of view, these solutions might not be optimal from a political or social perspective. Improving the transparency of our vision sharing and strategy making processes in a systematic way is therefore as important as the actual systems engineering solutions proposed by the modeling tools. Energy trend forecasting and back-casting, scenarios and system analysis have matured into powerful modeling tools for providing advice on optimizing our future energy solutions. The integrated use and iterative improvement of all these approaches can result in energy systems that become better optimized. Such an integrated approach is particularly important to those who have decision-making power over our future energy direction. Some of the challenges and opportunities for energy strategists that strive to promote optimal decisions on our future energy solutions are highlighted in this state-of-the-art review. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.