Influence of fault connectivity on slip rates in southern California: Potential impact on discrepancies between geodetic derived and geologic slip rates

Along the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault (SAF) and across the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), geologic slip rates differ from those inverted from geodetic measurements, which may partly be due to inaccurate fault connectivity within geodetic models. We employ three-dimensional models that are mechanically compatible with long-term plate motion to simulate both fault slip rates and interseismic surface deformation. We compare results from fault networks that follow mapped geologic traces and resemble those used in block model inversions, which connect the San Jacinto fault to the SAF near Cajon Pass and connect distinct faults within the ECSZ. The connection of the SAF with the San Jacinto fault decreases strike-slip rates along the SAF by up to 10% and increases strike-slip rates along the San Jacinto fault by up to 16%; however, slip rate changes are still within the large geologic ranges along the SAF. The insensitivity of interseismic surface velocities near Cajon Pass to fault connection suggests that inverse models may utilize both an incorrect fault geometry and slip rate and still provide an excellent fit to interseismic geodetic data. Similarly, connection of faults within the ECSZ produces 36% greater cumulative strike-slip rates but less than 17% increase in interseismic velocity. When using overconnected models to invert GPS for slip rates, the reduced off-fault deformation within the models can lead to overprediction of slip rates. While the nature of fault intersections at depth remains enigmatic, fault geometries should be chosen with caution in crustal deformation models.