Harmony in Diversity: Can the One Belt One Road Initiative Promote China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

This paper investigates the effect of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative on China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) using a dataset of all host countries for the period of 2010-2015. The employed econometric technique combines a difference-in-differences estimator with matching techniques. The results show that China's OFDI in OBOR countries is about 40% higher than in non-OBOR countries. After the initiative, the OFDI from China increases by 46.2% in OBOR countries. However, after controlling for the heterogeneity across OBOR and non-OBOR countries using the matching approach, the significance of the increasing effect caused by the OBOR initiative disappears. We also find the OBOR initiative diminishes the resource-seeking motivation and improves the market-seeking motivation of China's OFDI. Our results cast doubts on the infrastructure-led and institution-based strategy of the OBOR initiative, but support the boosting effect of the OBOR initiative on institutional cooperation and cultural convergence. Thus, the OBOR initiative is a sustainable continuation and development of the long tradition of economic, institutional, and cultural convergence with the OBOR countries, rather than a temporary policy shock.