Identifying hotspots of deforestation and reforestation in Colombia (2001-2010): implications for protected areas

The conversion of natural areas to human-dominated land uses has been the major cause of global biodiversity decline and ecosystem degradation. Protected areas have been the most common strategy for reducing habitat and species loss. Effective conservation planning requires current information on land change dynamics, and the factors driving these changes. Therefore, our main goal was to assess the implications of land change on present and future protected areas. Specifically, we identified hotspots of reforestation and deforestation in Colombia between 2001 and 2010, and we determined the factors that explained land change within these hotspots. We identified four reforestation hotpots located mainly in the highlands of the Andes, and four deforestation hotpots that were located in the lowlands. Environmental and armed conflict variables explained most of the variation in the woody vegetation and agriculture/pasture classes, respectively. Although protected areas cover 12% of the country, only 4% of the reforestation and deforestation hotspots included protected areas. In Colombia, as well as the rest of the world, the majority of protected lands occur in remote regions where there are little to no economic activities and threats. Although we recognize the importance of this conservation approach, particularly for long-term conservation of large areas, we believe that complementary approaches that incorporate current land change dynamics are essential for future protected area planning. These approaches would place higher value on establishing new protected areas in regions that are undergoing rapid land change or regions where agricultural activities have been abandoned and ecosystems are beginning to recovery. The first approach would have immediate conservation benefits, while the second approach could bring ecosystem benefits in the short to intermediate-term and biodiversity benefits in the medium to long-term. These complementary approaches can provide helpful information for protected area conservation planning in a world with rapid land change.