Adaptability of Mediterranean Agricultural Systems to Climate Change. The Example of the Sierra Magina Olive-Growing Region (Andalusia, Spain). Part I: Past and Present

This research focuses on the adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate change in the Sierra Magina region of Andalusia. The authors combined a retrospective and prospective analysis, an interdisciplinary approach, collaboration among climatologists, geographers, and sociologists, and the participation of local farmers and stakeholders, all contributing their own knowledge. This paper assesses the adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate irregularities over the past 50 yr. First, a climatic study shows that rainfall decreased by 18% during the period 1955-2009. Water resource availability has declined 2 or 3 times more than rainfall, in part because of the expansion of irrigation, which ameliorated the effects of droughts and increased profitability. Second, relationships between rainfall and both irrigated and rainfed olive yields are assessed. These show that the cumulative rainfall of the 2 yr preceding the crop explains 41% of the variability of irrigated olive tree yields and 46% of rainfed yields; this result was unexpected for irrigated yields. Third, this study examines the perceptions of climate variability of 15 farmers, the views of 16 local stakeholders [developers, olive oil professionals, local authorities, a conservationist, and a representative of a local nongovernmental organization (NGO)]. The perceptions of the farmers are interpreted with respect to their socioeconomic status. All farmer and stakeholder interviewees know to a certain extent the climatic influence on olive yields, and most of them acknowledge the recent climatic changes. These findings will be valuable for future assessments of the adaptability of the agricultural and social systems to climate change.