期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 7, 期 7, 页码 2965-2977出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph7072965
关键词
mortality; physiologically equivalent temperature; regional modeling; climate change; heat stress; Vienna
资金
- Austrian Federal Ministry for Science and Research
The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970-2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970-2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET >= 41 degrees C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据