Woody vegetative cover dynamics in response to recent climate change on an Atlantic coast barrier island: a remote sensing approach

Considering impacts of predicted increases in sea-level, storms, and alterations in precipitation patterns on geomorphological and associated ecological processes, woody vegetation dynamics may serve as sentinels to climate change on barrier islands. We examined island-scale conversion of land (i.e. sand to grassland to woody cover) while relating the importance of climate variables on rate of woody expansion. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) was used to evaluate potential distribution of woody species based on distance to shoreline and elevation. Using Landsat TM imagery, we monitored changes in island size and vegetation classes (1984-2010). These comparisons revealed conversion of grassland to woody cover (285% increase) was closely linked to air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric [CO2]. LiDAR data indicated that woody species have not expanded completely into the potential range. Our results suggest that woody species are responsive to climate change, thus serving as sentinels on Virginia barrier islands.