期刊
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
卷 3, 期 6, 页码 1798-1807出版社
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.575
关键词
AGCM; global warming; green-red vegetation index (GRVI); phenology; remote sensing
资金
- Projection of the Change in Future Weather Extremes Using Super-High-Resolution Atmospheric Models
- KAKUSHIN Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT)
- Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM) of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [PI 102]
- JSPS-KOSEF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program
Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12days under the SW model and 7days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26days under the SW model and by 15days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains.
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