期刊
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷 8, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-32658-x
关键词
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资金
- Hawai'i Department of Land and Natural Resources
- H.K.L. Castle Foundation
- Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center
- Honolulu Board of Water Supply
- Honolulu Office of Climate Change Sustainability and Resiliency
- Hawai'i Community Foundation
- County of Kaua'i
- National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
- School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
- University of Hawai'i high performance-computing cluster
Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called bathtub approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in Hawaii (including tidally-forced direct marine and groundwater flooding, seasonal wave inundation, and chronic coastal erosion). We find that the bathtub approach, alone, ignores 35-54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and SLR scenario. We conclude that modeling dynamic processes, including waves and erosion, is essential to robust SLR vulnerability assessment. Results also indicate that as sea level rises, coastal lands are exposed to higher flood depths and water velocities. The prevalence of low-lying coastal plains leads to a rapid increase in land exposure to hazards when sea level exceeds a critical elevation of similar to 0.3 or 0.6 m, depending on location. At similar to 1 m of SLR, land that is roughly seven times the total modern beach area is exposed to one or more hazards. Projected increases in extent, magnitude, and rate of persistent SLR impacts suggest an urgency to engage in long-term planning immediately.
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