期刊
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷 8, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4
关键词
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资金
- Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project
- JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships
- JSPS KAKENHI [18H03745]
- KOPRI Asian Polar Science Fellowship Program
- KPOPS (KOPRI) [PE18130]
- K-AOOS (KOPRI) [20160245]
- MOF, Korea
- Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation [RFMEFI61617X0076]
- ArctiC Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and SurfaCe Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3 - DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) [SFB/TR 172]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [18H03745] Funding Source: KAKEN
- Korea Polar Research Institute of Marine Research Placement (KOPRI) [PE18130] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer; thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations.
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