期刊
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷 3, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/srep02218
关键词
-
资金
- Aihara Innovative Mathematical Modelling Project
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)
- Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)
- JSPS
- JSPS KAKENHI [23240039]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [23240039] Funding Source: KAKEN
Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据