期刊
NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW
卷 14, 期 1, 页码 11-20出版社
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000083
关键词
Hurricane evacuation destination type choice; Nested logit model; Hurricane evacuation behavior; Hurricane Ivan
类别
资金
- National Science Foundation [SES-0826874, SES-0826873]
- USACE
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie [0826873] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Hurricanes are costly natural disasters periodically faced by households in coastal and, to some extent, inland areas. Public agencies must understand household behavior to develop evacuation plans that align with evacuee choices and behavior. This paper presents a previously unknown household-level hurricane evacuation destination type choice model. The discrete choice of destination type is modeled using a nested logit model. Although previous literature considers only houses of friends and relatives and hotels for modeling purposes, this paper incorporates public shelters, churches, and an aggregated destination type denoted other. This research found that the variables influencing this choice include hurricane position at evacuation time, household geographic location, race, income, preparation time, changes in evacuation plans, previous experiences with major hurricanes, household members working during the evacuation, and evacuation notices. The findings of this paper are useful to understand the competition among destination types and how the characteristics of the demand can be used to develop evacuation strategies, such as increasing and/or decreasing use of public shelters, and measuring the effect of evacuation notices in areas with high accessibility to hotels. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000083. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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