期刊
NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW
卷 12, 期 2, 页码 72-84出版社
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000037
关键词
Hurricanes; Evacuation; Dynamic decision-making
类别
资金
- Florida International University
- NOAA
To better understand household hurricane evacuation decisions, this paper addresses a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision is framed as an optimal stopping problem in which every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. We build a realistic multiperiod model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for our designated Gulf of Mexico region. Results from our multiperiod model are calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations are analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision is achieved. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000037. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据