Economic development and the carbon intensity of human well-being

Humans use fossil fuels in various activities tied to economic development, leading to increases in carbon emissions(1-3), and economic development is widely recognized as a pathway to improving human well-being. Strategies for effective sustainability efforts require reducing the carbon intensity of human well-being (CIWB): the level of anthropogenic carbon emissions per unit of human well-being(4-7). Here I examine how the effect of economic development on CIWB has changed since 1970 for 106 countries in multiple regional samples throughout the world. I find that early in this time period, increased development led to a reduction in CIWB for nations in Africa, but in recent decades the relationship has changed, becoming less sustainable. For nations in Asia and South and Central America, I find that development increases CIWB, and increasingly so throughout the 40-year period of study. The effect of development on CIWB for nations in the combined regions of North America, Europe and Oceania has remained positive, relatively larger than in other regions, and stable through time. Although future economic growth will probably improve human well-being throughout the world(8), this research suggests that it will also cost an increasing amount of carbon emissions.