期刊
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
卷 3, 期 2, 页码 165-170出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1674
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资金
- UFOPLAN project through the German Federal Environment Agency [FKZ 370841103]
- Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety [11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS, LDCs]
Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees C (atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3-1.8 degrees C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals' thermal adaptation, one-third (9-60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world's coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30-88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.
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