期刊
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
卷 1, 期 7, 页码 360-364出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1229
关键词
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资金
- Office of Science (BER), US Department of Energy [DE-FC02-97ER62402]
- National Science Foundation
- NASA [NNX09AH89G]
There have been decades, such as 2000-2009, when the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend(1) (a hiatus period). However, the observed energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere for this recent decade indicates that a net energy flux into the climate system of about 1W m(-2) (refs 2,3) should be producing warming somewhere in the system(4,5). Here we analyse twenty-first-century climate-model simulations that maintain a consistent radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere of about 1W m(-2) as observed for the past decade. Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface-temperature trend show that the ocean above 300m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300m takes up significantly more, compared with non-hiatus decades. The model provides a plausible depiction of processes in the climate system causing the hiatus periods, and indicates that a hiatus period is a relatively common climate phenomenon and may be linked to La Nina-like conditions.
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