期刊
INTERFACE FOCUS
卷 2, 期 2, 页码 156-169出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsfs.2011.0103
关键词
epidemiology; influenza; dengue fever; deterministic chaos; master equation; likelihood
类别
资金
- European Union
- FCT, Portugal [PTDC/MAT/115168/2009]
We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.
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