期刊
EPIDEMICS
卷 1, 期 2, 页码 101-107出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.03.002
关键词
Bank vole cycles; Ecology; Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome; Rodent-borne disease; Zoonoses
资金
- Academy of Finland [126364, 115961, 119200, 118603, 109165, 204284]
- Centre of Excellence in Evolutionary Research in the University of Jyvaskyla
- EU [GOCE-CT-2003-010284 EDEN]
- UK's Joint Environment and Human Health Programme
- NERC
- Defra
- EA
- MOD
- MRC
- Konnevesi Research Station
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [126364, 126364] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, and understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics still poses unsolved challenges. Here we studied the three-level relationships between the human disease nephropathia epidemica (NE), its etiological agent Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) and the rodent host of the virus, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). A large and long-term data set (14 years, 2583 human NE cases and 4751 trapped bank voles) indicates that the number of human infections shows both seasonal and multi-annual fluctuations, is influenced by the phase of vole cycle and time of the year, and follows vole abundance with a lag of a few months. Our results suggest that although human hantavirus epidemics are preceded by high sero prevalence in the host population, they may be accurately predicted solely by the population dynamics of the carrier species, even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host populations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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