How much will the energy service directive contribute to the 20% EU energy savings goal?

The Energy Service Directive (ESD) of the European Union (EU) stipulates that member states realize 9% energy savings for the period 2008-2016. A harmonized calculation approach, consisting of a combination of top-down and bottom-up methods, will be developed to determine the savings of energy efficiency improvement measures. However, it is unclear which part of all realized energy savings is eligible in meeting the ESD target. One can argue that not all savings, especially the autonomous efficiency gains, should be accounted for, but only savings due to (new) policy. An analysis is made of the way the methods can be applied, how baseline choices define the savings and whether these represent policy-induced savings. It is shown that the given target could be met with total energy savings that equal 1.0% of ESD energy use per year, hardly more than realized at present. With other choices, the target is met with total savings of 1.6% per year. The savings found are made comparable with the 2.4% yearly savings derived from the 20% savings target for 2020 formulated by the EU. Given the large gap between ESD savings and the savings target, it is concluded that the methods and baselines used should be chosen such that the ESD target leads to realized savings after 2008 at the upper side of the margin.