Advances in precision agriculture in south-eastern Australia. I. A regression methodology to simulate spatial variation in cereal yields using farmers' historical paddock yields and normalised difference vegetation index

Despite considerable interest by Australian farmers in precision agriculture (PA), its uptake has been low. Analysis of the possible financial benefits of alternative management options that are based on the underlying patterns of observed spatial and temporal yield variability in a paddock could increase farmer confidence in adopting PA. The cost and difficulty in collecting harvester yield maps have meant that spatial yield data are generally not available in Australia. This study proposes a simple, economical and easy to use approach to generate simulated yield maps by using paddock-specific relationships between satellite normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the farmer's average paddock yield records. The concept behind the approach is illustrated using a limited dataset. For each of 12 paddocks in a property where a farmer's paddock-level yield data were available for 3-5 years, the paddock-level yields showed a close to linear relationship with paddock-level NDVI across seasons. This estimated linear relationship for each paddock was used to simulate mean yields for the paddock at the subpaddock level at which NDVI data were available. For one paddock of 167 ha, for which 4 years of harvester yield data and 6 years of NDVI data were available, the map of simulated mean yield was compared with the map of harvester mean yield. The difference between the two maps, expressed as percentage deviation from the observed mean yield, was <20% for 63% of the paddock and <40% for 78% of the paddock area. For 3 seasons when there were both harvester yield data and NDVI data, the individual season simulated yields were within 30% of the observed yields for over 70% of the paddock area in 2 of the seasons, which is comparable with spatial crop modelling results reported elsewhere. For the third season, simulated yields were within 30% of the observed yield in only 22% of the paddock, but poor seasonal conditions meant that 40% of the paddock yielded <100 kg/ha. To illustrate the type of financial analysis of alternative management options that could be undertaken using the simulated yield data, a simple economic analysis comparing uniform v. variable rate nitrogen fertiliser is reported. This indicated that the benefits of using variable rate technology varied considerably between paddocks, depending on the degree of spatial yield variability. The proposed simulated yield mapping requires greater validation with larger datasets and a wider range of sites, but potentially offers growers and land managers a rapid and cost-effective tool for the initial estimation of subpaddock yield variability. Such maps could provide growers with the information necessary to carry out on-farm testing of the potential benefits of using variable applications of agronomic inputs, and to evaluate the financial benefits of greater investment in PA technology.