期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 5, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4136
关键词
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资金
- MRC Methodology Fellowship [G1002284]
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Vaccine Modeling Initiative
- MRC
- MRC [MR/K010174/1, G1002284] Funding Source: UKRI
- Medical Research Council [G1002284, MR/K010174/1B, MR/K010174/1] Funding Source: researchfish
Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations in health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and loss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmission intensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we then produce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252 (95% credible interval: 171-353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that active case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12-86%) of these cases would be observed through passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinical malaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% at low transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to be reconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.
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