期刊
WORLD JOURNAL OF UROLOGY
卷 30, 期 2, 页码 181-187出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00345-011-0818-5
关键词
Receiver operating characteristic curve; Risk, prostate cancer; Calibration; Net benefit
资金
- Prostate Cancer Foundation
- Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers SPORE from the U.S. National Cancer Institute [P50-CA92629]
- Cancer Center Support for the Cancer Therapy and Research Center at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio [P30-CA054174]
- European Union [SOC 95 35109, SOC 96 201869 05F022, SOC 97 201329, SOC 98 32241, PMark:LSHC-CT-2004-503011]
- Dutch Cancer Society [KWF 94-869, 98-1657, 2002-277, 2006-3518]
- Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development [ZonMW-002822820, 22000106, 50-50110-98-311]
- Swedish Cancer Society [09 0107, 080315, 083455]
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon
- Tyrolean Prostate Cancer Early Detection Group
- San Antonio Center of Biomarkers of Risk for Prostate Cancer [CA086402]
- UK NIHR [96/20/06, 96/20/99]
- MRC [G0900871] Funding Source: UKRI
- Medical Research Council [G0900871] Funding Source: researchfish
- National Institute for Health Research [NF-SI-0509-10242] Funding Source: researchfish
To evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and net benefit performance of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC) across five European randomized study of screening for prostate cancer (ERSPC), 1 United Kingdom, 1 Austrian, and 3 US biopsy cohorts. PCPTRC risks were calculated for 25,733 biopsies using prostate-specific antigen (PSA), digital rectal examination, family history, history of prior biopsy, and imputation for missing covariates. Predictions were evaluated using the areas underneath the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), discrimination slopes, chi-square tests of goodness of fit, and net benefit decision curves. AUCs of the PCPTRC ranged from a low of 56% in the ERSPC Goeteborg Rounds 2-6 cohort to a high of 72% in the ERSPC Goeteborg Round 1 cohort and were statistically significantly higher than that of PSA in 6 out of the 10 cohorts. The PCPTRC was well calibrated in the SABOR, Tyrol, and Durham cohorts. There was limited to no net benefit to using the PCPTRC for biopsy referral compared to biopsying all or no men in all five ERSPC cohorts and benefit within a limited range of risk thresholds in all other cohorts. External validation of the PCPTRC across ten cohorts revealed varying degree of success highly dependent on the cohort, most likely due to different criteria for and work-up before biopsy. Future validation studies of new calculators for prostate cancer should acknowledge the potential impact of the specific cohort studied when reporting successful versus failed validation.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据