Identification and Estimation for Electric Water Heaters in Direct Load Control Programs

PowerShift-Atlantic (PSA) is a pilot project lead by Canadian Maritime utilities that demonstrates direct load control strategies for up to 20 MW of commercial and residential loads for the purpose of balancing the intermittency of renewable generation and supporting demand-side management programs. On the residential side, domestic electric water heaters (DEWHs) form a significant end use class. The ability to accurately estimate and predict the state of individual end use devices allows aggregated control systems to better ensure end-use performance and comfort levels. This paper presents a methodology for estimating and predicting the state of individual DEWHs from models of their thermodynamics and water consumption that are derived under two scenarios: 1) when measurements of both power consumption and water temperature are available; and 2) when only measurements of power consumption are available. The proposed methodology was implemented as part of the PSA pilot project for the DEWH load class to simulate the behavior of the load in presence of the controller and evaluate the performance of the controller. Experimental results show that the model and water usage profile mimic the actual behavior of DEWHs, and can predict the future power consumption when the thermostatic control of a DEWH is interrupted as part of a load control strategy.