期刊
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
卷 47, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009826
关键词
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资金
- Murray-Darling Basin Authority [MD1318]
- Australian Research Council [DP0879763]
- Australian Research Council [DP0879763] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (E-o = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, E-o, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070-2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (+/- 30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (+/- 80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.
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